The red line represents the average RYO2.0 for the group at each age for all 36 backs the green line represents the average RYO2.0 only for those backs who were active in the league at that age.Priest Holmes' explanation for his NFL comeback was filled with more questions than answers. I calculated the RYO2.0 for each of the 36 running backs at ages 22 through 34. Essentially, we’re looking at just rushing yards with a small adjustment depending on the player’s yards per carry average. As the name implies, a running back gets credit for his yards gained over 2.0 yards per carry, so 300 carries for 1000 yards is worth 400 marginal yards, as is 1,060 yards on 330 carries. One metric I’ve used before is called “ Rushing Yards Over 2.0 Yards Per Carry” or RYO2.0, for short. No, when people discuss running backs hitting a wall and deteriorating, the focus is on declining rushing yards and rushing yards per carry. I don’t think the focus is on touchdown production, either, and we all remember Jerome Bettis still being a short-yardage force even when he was well past his prime.
Generally, I don’t think people worry about running backs failing to be factors in the passing game as they age Kevin Faulk set a career high in receiving yards at age 32. Now we need a metric to measure running back productivity. I looked at all running backs who entered the league in 1990 or later, rushed for at least 5,000 rushing yards, averaged at least 40 rushing yards per game for their careers, and are retired. Still, we can try to identify the general aging pattern of top tier running backs. It’s difficult to find true comparisons to any one running back, let alone a group of runners. But do we know when? And how severe the drop-off will be? Each running back is unique, with his own genetics, history, and supporting cast. We know the wheels will fall off for these players. Fred Jackson (31) and Willis McGahee (31 in October) have had varying degrees of wear and tear during their careers, and are both competing with younger backs on their roster. Michael Turner had his 30th birthday in February, and has accumulated 300 carries in three of the last four years. Steven Jackson turns the same age in three weeks, and has been beaten and bruised while playing on bad teams his whole career.
Let’s start with the quarterbacks:įrank Gore is 29 years old and has been the featured back of the 49ers since 2006. That said, once you pick a scoring system and a set of rules, it’s easy to calculate career VBD scores for every player since 1950 I’ve pro-rated production for those players who were part of seasons when the NFL did not have a 16-game schedule I also changed the baseline numbers depending on the number of teams in the … Continue reading. Again, I’m using a blend here, but for baseline purposes I’m using QB12, RB24, WR32 and TE12, since the standard 12-team league starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs and 1 TE. I’ve decided to use a blend of the most common scoring options: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 5 points per passing touchdown, -2 points per interception, 6 points for rushing/receiving … Continue reading And, of course, his VBD score will change depending on the number of starters at each position in the league. There is no standard scoring system for fantasy leagues, so a player’s fantasy points total will depend on the specific league’s scoring rules. A player who scores fewer fantasy points than the worst starter has a VBD of 0. Each player’s VBD score is the difference between the amount of fantasy points he scored and the fantasy points scored by the worst starter (at his position) in your fantasy league. Joe Bryant’s landmark “ Value Base Drafting” system explained that the “value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores, but by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.” Bryant came up with the concept of calculating a ‘VBD’ number for each player to measure their value.Ī player’s VBD is easy to calculate. “Greatest ever” debates are always subjective, but at least when it comes to fantasy football, we can get pretty close to declaring a definitive answer. Tomlinson pushed many teams to fantasy titles.īill Simmons wrote about LaDainian Tomlinson last month and called him the best fantasy football player of all-time.
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